Turkey promotes the so-called "Hong Kong model" of reconciliation, under which Russia is offered to receive the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk and the Crimean peninsula for "long-term use". The Moscow-based Institute of the Middle East, which provides expert analytical services to Russian government agencies on Middle Eastern issues, writes about it.
The reconstruction of Donetsk and Luhansk will be done at the expense of the Russian side. After a certain period of time (various periods of time are mentioned, on average 50 years), Russia will have to return these territories to Ukraine.
As the Turkish side insists, this model is a win-win model for both sides of the conflict.
▪️ For Ukraine - because it will receive a Russian commitment, guaranteed by international observers, that it will get back the territories it considers its own and, as can be seen, no Ukrainian leadership will be able to retain its power by agreeing to the contrary. Thus, Ukraine will emerge victorious from the Russian special operation.
▪️ For Russia, as Turkish observers suggest, the scheme is also very attractive, not only because the West will lift its sanctions. Russia will be able to carry out "social engineering", finally russifying these regions and making it impossible for them to return to Ukraine. Also, this term is long enough for literally anything to happen during this time that would "disable Russia" from fulfilling the commitment it has made.
As noted in the publication, the assessment of a significant proportion of Turkish experts is that "Russia has failed in Ukraine" and "Putin is seeking an honourable exit from Ukraine". The "Hong Kong option" gives Putin such an opportunity.
Comments
Post a Comment