China only pretends to be Russia's best friend, whereas it only acts in its own interests, notes Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, in an article in Kommersant.
"Beijing does many things that the sanctions regime still allows it to do: it pumps gas from Russia, buys metals, oil, coal and other raw materials, and many of these goods are sold to the PRC at a substantial discount. China does not do everything that is prohibited by the sanctions: its dependence on Western markets, capital and especially technology is too great to risk access to them for the sake of the Russian market. Beijing takes into account that almost all imports (except weapons and some civil engineering products) from Russia can be bought elsewhere, and Russia is far from being the largest market for exporters," the analyst says.
Gabuev notes that until the end of active hostilities and the West's subsequent rethinking of the contours of the sanctions regime, Beijing will wait.
"Amid Russia's sagging economy, China's negotiating position is improving by the day, and the once arrogant oligarchs and heads of Russian state companies are becoming more and more accommodating. So why rush to any agreements?
The author emphasizes that China or Oman will take care "to extract the maximum profit from this situation for itself. Of course, without forgetting to repeat that Russia has never had a better friend than China.
Turkey promotes the so-called "Hong Kong model" of reconciliation, under which Russia is offered to receive the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk and the Crimean peninsula for "long-term use". The Moscow-based Institute of the Middle East, which provides expert analytical services to Russian government agencies on Middle Eastern issues, writes about it. The reconstruction of Donetsk and Luhansk will be done at the expense of the Russian side. After a certain period of time (various periods of time are mentioned, on average 50 years), Russia will have to return these territories to Ukraine. As the Turkish side insists, this model is a win-win model for both sides of the conflict. ▪️ For Ukraine - because it will receive a Russian commitment, guaranteed by international observers, that it will get back the territories it considers its own and, as can be seen, no Ukrainian leadership will be able to retain its power by agreeing to the contrary. Thus, Ukraine wil...
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